国际货币基金组织（IMF）2026年10月版《世界经济展望》（World Economic Outlook）数据库公布了对哈萨克斯坦主要宏观经济指标的预测。
经济规模与增速
据IMF数据库：
- 2026年，哈萨克斯坦按现价计算的名义国内生产总值预计为3979亿美元，2025年为3060亿美元；2027年预计为4334亿美元；
- 2026年实际国内生产总值预计增长4.4%，2025年为6.5%；2027年增速预计为4.9%；
- 2026年人均国内生产总值预计为19311美元，2025年为15006美元；2027年预计为20814美元；
- 同一数据库预计，2026年全球经济增长3.1%。
通胀、就业与外部平衡
- 消费者价格年均涨幅：2025年为11.4%，2026年预计为10.3%，2027年预计为8.2%；
- 失业率：2026年预计为4.6%，2027年预计为4.5%；
- 经常账户余额：2025年为相当于国内生产总值-4.1%的逆差，2026年预计转为相当于国内生产总值0.5%的顺差，2027年预计为-0.7%。
Rules related to this news
非资源部门
据哈萨克斯坦总理网站10月13日消息，哈萨克斯坦副总理兼国民经济部长塞里克·日乌曼加林在政府会议上通报，今年前九个月哈萨克斯坦经济增长4.2%，增长主要由非资源部门支撑，该部门估计增长5.4%。增速较高的行业包括建筑业、加工制造业、交通运输服务和贸易，这些行业对国内生产总值增长的合计贡献超过75%。同期石油产量下降8.3%，为6940万吨。
对在哈经营或计划进入哈萨克斯坦市场的中国企业来说，IMF对哈今明两年增速、通胀和经常账户的预测，可作为评估当地需求和汇率环境的参考之一。
资料来源：
国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》数据库（2026年10月版），哈萨克斯坦页面：https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/KAZ；数据接口：https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/NGDPD
哈萨克斯坦总理网站（俄文，10月13日），https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/rost-vvp-kazahstana-po-itogam-devyati-mesyacev-tekushchego-goda-sostavil-42-31989
封面图片由AI生成，非真实照片。
Key facts
- The International Monetary Fund expects Kazakhstan’s real gross domestic product to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027.
- The International Monetary Fund expects Kazakhstan’s nominal gross domestic product to reach USD 397.9 billion in 2026, with gross domestic product per capita of USD 19,311.
- The International Monetary Fund expects the average annual increase in consumer prices in Kazakhstan to be 10.3% in 2026, with unemployment at 4.6%.
- The International Monetary Fund expects Kazakhstan’s current account surplus to equal 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2026.
- The Government of Kazakhstan reports that economic growth was 4.2% during the first nine months of 2026, while the non-resource sector is estimated to have grown by 5.4%.
- The Government of Kazakhstan states that construction, processing industries, transport services, and trade together contributed more than 75% to gross domestic product growth.
FAQ
How much real economic growth does the IMF expect for Kazakhstan in 2026?
The International Monetary Fund expects real gross domestic product growth of 4.4% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027.
What is the IMF’s forecast for the size of Kazakhstan’s economy?
The International Monetary Fund expects Kazakhstan’s nominal gross domestic product to reach USD 397.9 billion in 2026, with gross domestic product per capita of USD 19,311.
How is Kazakhstan’s inflation rate expected to change?
The International Monetary Fund expects the average annual increase in consumer prices to decline from 11.4% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, and further to 8.2% in 2027.
How is Kazakhstan’s current account balance expected to change?
The International Monetary Fund expects Kazakhstan’s current account surplus to equal 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2026 before shifting to a deficit equivalent to 0.7% of gross domestic product in 2027.
How did the non-resource sector and oil perform in Kazakhstan during the first nine months of 2026?
The Government of Kazakhstan states that economic growth was 4.2% during the first nine months, while the non-resource sector is estimated to have grown by 5.4%. Over the same period, oil output was 69.4 million tonnes, down 8.3%.