Kazakhstan’s Manufacturing Investment Rises 40.1%, with GDP Growing 4.2% in the First Three Quarters

Kazakhstan's economy grew 4.2% in nine months as non-resource sectors offset lower oil output and manufacturing investment rose 40%

On 13 October Kazakhstan's government reviewed nine-month results: GDP grew 4.2% despite an 8.3% fall in oil output. Non-resource sectors expanded by an estimated 5.4%, construction by 11.5% and manufacturing by 8.6%. Fixed investment reached KZT 16.1 trillion (+7%), with private investment up 18.2% and manufacturing investment up 40.1%. Of 200 projects planned for the year, 106 have been commissioned, a sign of continued room for Chinese industrial partners.

Machine translation; may contain errors.

This year's growth in Kazakhstan is not coming from oil. At a government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov on 13 October, Deputy Prime Minister and National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin reported that GDP rose 4.2% in January–September.

Oil drags, everything else compensates

Zhumangarin cited three headwinds: lower oil output, a stronger tenge squeezing exporters' revenue, and slower consumer lending. Oil production over nine months was 69.4 million tonnes, 8.3% below last year, so the oil sector subtracted from growth. Non-resource sectors carried the load, expanding by an estimated 5.4%. Construction grew 11.5% and manufacturing 8.6%, with transport and trade also strong. The two official readouts differ on the sectors' combined contribution: the ministry's report says construction, manufacturing, transport and trade together account for more than 75% of growth, while the prime minister, adding agriculture, put five sectors at about 80.5%.

Investment led by private capital and manufacturing

Fixed investment reached KZT 16.1 trillion over nine months, up 7%. Private investment rose 18.2% and now makes up 85.7% of the total. Investment grew fastest in manufacturing (+40.1%), construction (+32%) and information and communications (+29.2%). Gross FDI inflows in the first half were $9.4 billion (the National Bank earlier gave $9.36 billion, as we reported).

Projects: 106 of 200 online

Rules related to this news

Of the 200 investment projects scheduled to launch this year, 106 are already operating. The prime minister ordered officials to secure raw materials for metals producers and told the transport ministry and national railway KTZ to keep containers and wagons with inputs and components moving.

What Chinese investors should watch

First, manufacturing investment is growing several times faster than the headline, so demand for industrial partners in metals, machinery, chemicals and building materials remains. Second, the government is working to secure feedstock for metals plants and to lower export barriers, which could open doors for suppliers and logistics firms. Third, falling oil output and a strong tenge are the year's main variables; projects earning in tenge should price in currency risk. All figures are the government's preliminary numbers; final data come from the Bureau of National Statistics.

This article was prepared with AI assistance and checked against sources by the editors; the cover is an AI-generated illustration, not a photograph.

Sources:
- Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, official site (economy ministry report): https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/rost-vvp-kazahstana-po-itogam-devyati-mesyacev-tekushchego-goda-sostavil-42-31989
- Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, official site (meeting summary): https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/rost-ekonomiki-za-9-mesyacev-tg-sostavil-42-v-pravitelstve-rassmotreli-itogi-socialno-ekonomicheskogo-razvitiya-i-ispolneniya-respublikanskogo-byudzheta-31988
- Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, official site (industry ministry report): https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/106-novyh-proizvodstv-i-78-trln-tenge-stroitelnyh-rabot-klyuchevye-otrasli-kazahstana-demonstriruyut-rost-31993
- Kazinform: https://www.inform.kz/ru/kazahstan-podvel-ekonomicheskie-itogi-zadevyat-mesyatsev-f70585aa

Key facts

Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 4.2% in the first three quarters, while oil production cuts dragged on economic growth.

Kazakhstan’s non-resource sector grew by approximately 5.4% in the first three quarters, with construction increasing by 11.5%.

Investment in Kazakhstan’s processing industry grew by 40.1% in the first three quarters, while private investment increased by 18.2%.

The Kazakh government plans to bring 200 investment projects into operation this year; 106 had commenced operations by the time of the meeting.

Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister instructed the Ministry of Transport and Kazakhstan Railways to ensure the stable transportation of containers and railcars carrying raw materials and spare parts.

Kazakhstan’s economic figures are preliminary data reported at a government meeting and remain subject to final confirmation by the National Bureau of Statistics.

FAQ

How did Kazakhstan’s GDP perform in the first three quarters?

From January to September, GDP grew by 4.2%; oil output fell by 8.3% year on year, making a negative contribution to GDP growth.

Which non-resource industries recorded faster growth?

The non-resource sector grew by approximately 5.4%, with construction increasing by 11.5% and the processing industry by 8.6%. Transport and trade also maintained relatively rapid growth.

How much did investment in Kazakhstan’s processing industry increase?

Fixed-asset investment in the processing industry increased by 40.1% in the first nine months, while total fixed-asset investment grew by 7% over the same period.

What progress has been made in bringing planned investment projects into operation?

The government plans to bring 200 investment projects into operation this year. As of the meeting on October 13, 106 had already commenced operations.

Which economic variables should be monitored for projects in Kazakhstan?

Oil production cuts and the strengthening tenge are the two key variables this year. Projects generating revenue denominated in tenge must take exchange-rate factors into account.