Gross foreign direct investment into Kazakhstan slipped in the first half of 2026, but money from China kept edging up. The National Bank's updated tables put total gross inflows from foreign direct investors at about $9.36 billion for January–June, down roughly 7.8% from $10.15 billion a year earlier. China contributed $1.47 billion, ranking third among source countries and up about 4.9%.
Kursiv also reported the figures on October 1.
A weak first quarter
Almost all of the gap opened in the first quarter: $6.29 billion this year against $7.11 billion in Q1 2025. Second-quarter inflows of $3.07 billion were roughly level with a year earlier ($3.04 billion).
Who invested
The top five sources were the Netherlands ($1.97 billion, down about 12.5%), Russia ($1.49 billion, up 25%), China ($1.47 billion, up 4.9%), Qatar ($1.31 billion, up 12%) and the UAE ($712 million, down 33%). South Korea, Cyprus and Belgium each added around half a billion.
Chinese inflows rose from $586 million in Q1 to $885 million in Q2. For all of 2025, China sent $2.82 billion, so the first half already covers a little over half of last year's total. China accounts for about 15.7% of gross inflows so far this year.
Two caveats. Hong Kong is reported separately ($73 million in H1) and is not part of the China line. And the data are recorded by the country of the direct investor, so Chinese capital routed through a holding company elsewhere may sit under that jurisdiction instead.
Where the money went
Wholesale and retail trade, including vehicle repair, drew the most at $2.2 billion (up 1.9%), followed by finance and insurance at $1.93 billion (up 6.4%) and manufacturing at $1.81 billion (down 13.8%).
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The sharpest swings were in construction and mining. Construction attracted $1.1 billion after a negative reading of about –$158 million in H1 2025. Mining took in just $816 million versus $1.66 billion a year earlier, and turned negative in the second quarter at roughly –$670 million.
One discrepancy surfaced during checking: Kursiv gave last year's construction figure as $157.8 million, while the National Bank table shows it with a minus sign. We follow the primary source.
Net inflows halved, China's grew
Gross inflows count only money coming in. The central bank's net-flow tables, which subtract funds withdrawn by foreign direct investors, show a net inflow of about $471 million in H1, down 49% from $929 million. China moved the other way: about $695 million net, against $185 million a year earlier.
What it means for Chinese investors
Foreign capital is shifting away from extraction toward construction, trade and financial services. Chinese contractors, building-materials makers and distributors can expect more competition, but also a wider pool of local partners.
The drop in manufacturing is worth tracking against the Chinese-backed plants we have covered in recent weeks – vehicle assembly, aluminium, steel, cement. Most are still at the agreement or construction stage, and their funding pace should show up in coming quarters.
Finally, the National Bank revises quarterly data, so 2025 figures may differ from first releases. When citing them, note the methodology and the download date.
We will revisit the numbers once third-quarter data are published.
Sources:
National Bank of Kazakhstan, Direct investment by directional principle: https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/pryamye-investicii-po-napravleniyu-vlozheniya
National Bank of Kazakhstan, gross FDI inflow tables (Q2 2026 update): https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/136223
National Bank of Kazakhstan, net direct investment flow tables: https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/137141
Kursiv, 1 October 2026: https://kz.kursiv.media/2026-10-01/svan-inostrannye-investicii-v-kazahstan-snizilis-v-liderah-rossiya-i-katar/