哈萨克斯坦国家银行2026年10月23日把基准利率从16.25%下调至15.75%，降幅50个基点。这是自6月以来的第四次下调。央行同时表示，2026年底前再调整基准利率的可能性低。
对在哈经营、靠坚戈融资的企业来说，这意味着今年余下的时间里，基准利率大概率停在15.75%。
一、利率怎么走到15.75%
今年6月，基准利率从18%降至17%；7月降至16.75%；9月降至16.25%；10月23日降至15.75%。
二、委员会内部有分歧
据哈通社、Zakon.kz报道，行长苏莱曼诺夫在发布会上说，货币政策委员会讨论了三个方案：维持不变、下调25个基点、下调50个基点。他认为在目前的利率水平上降25个基点力度不够，委员会最终选择了50个基点。对于部分专家期待的下调1个百分点，他说委员会没有讨论这一方案。
三、降息的依据
据哈萨克斯坦国家统计局数据，2026年9月年通胀为9.3%，8月为9.8%。其中食品价格同比上涨8.5%，非食品上涨11.0%，服务上涨8.9%；9月环比通胀为0.6%。国家银行表示，年通胀和居民通胀预期持续回落，是这次降息的主要理由，但价格压力仍然存在。
四、经济数据
2026年1至9月，哈萨克斯坦经济增长4.2%，非资源领域增长5.4%，建筑、加工制造、运输和贸易增速最快。同期石油产量同比下降8.3%，拖累了总体增速。固定资产投资增长7.0%，零售贸易增长4.5%。
五、为什么年底前大概率不再动
国家银行认为风险偏向通胀一侧：财政刺激、偏高的通胀预期、燃油价格和受管制收费都在推高物价。上一年公用事业收费曾冻结并下调，这一低基数可能让年底的同比通胀数字有所抬升。外部环境同样偏紧，全球能源和食品价格处在高位，主要经济体央行的政策也在收紧。行长表示，受管制价格改革带来的直接影响，央行不会用加息来回应，但会关注其后续传导。
六、对企业意味着什么
对在哈中资企业和贸易商而言，坚戈贷款成本的方向已经向下，但节奏取决于通胀。今年余下时间，财务安排更适合按15.75%的基准利率测算；12月4日的决议和年底几个月的通胀数据，是接下来需要关注的节点。
资料来源：
哈萨克斯坦国家银行新闻稿，https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/press-relizy/20503
哈萨克斯坦国家银行新闻稿列表（基准利率），https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/press-relizy/rubrics/2367
哈萨克斯坦国家银行基准利率决议日程，https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/grafik-prinyatiya-resheniy-po-bazovoy-stavke/rubrics/2365
国际文传电讯社哈萨克斯坦分社，https://www.interfax.kz/en/news/83359
Tengrinews，https://en.tengrinews.kz/companies/national-bank-explained-the-base-rate-reduction-274438/
哈通社，https://www.inform.kz/ru/kakie-varianti-snizheniya-bazovoy-stavki-obsuzhdal-natsbank-kazahstana-ac991115
Zakon.kz，https://www.zakon.kz/finansy/6536071-usloviya-pozvolili-snizit-bolee-reshitelnym-obrazom-glava-natsbanka-o-bazovoy-stavke.html
哈萨克斯坦国家统计局（通胀），https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/economy/prices/publications/353604/
哈萨克斯坦国家统计局（固定资产投资），https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/business-statistics/stat-invest/publications/519435/
哈萨克斯坦国家统计局（国内贸易），https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/economy/local-market/publications/518392/
Kapital.kz，https://kapital.kz/economic/154217/ekonomika-kazahstana-vyrosla-na-42percent-za-devyat-mesyacev-2026-goda.html
国际文传电讯社哈萨克斯坦分社（石油产量），https://www.interfax.kz/ru/financial-and-economic-news/143263
声明：本文封面为AI生成示意图，与新闻内容无直接对应。
Key facts
- On October 23, 2026, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate from 16.25% to 15.75%.
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan said there was little likelihood of another base rate adjustment before the end of 2026.
- Data from the Statistical Bureau of Kazakhstan showed that annual inflation was 9.3% in September 2026 and 9.8% in August.
- Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.2% in January–September 2026, while the non-resource sector grew by 5.4%.
- Fixed asset investment in Kazakhstan increased by 7.0% in January–September 2026, while oil production fell by 8.3% year on year.
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan said fiscal stimulus, inflation expectations, fuel prices and regulated fees were pushing up prices.
FAQ
By how much did the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate this time?
The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate from 16.25% to 15.75%, a reduction of 50 basis points. This was the fourth cut since June.
Will the base rate be adjusted again before the end of 2026?
The National Bank of Kazakhstan said there was little likelihood of another base rate adjustment before the end of 2026. For businesses relying on tenge financing, it is more appropriate to base financial planning on the 15.75% base rate.
What was the main basis for this rate cut?
The National Bank of Kazakhstan said the continued decline in annual inflation and household inflation expectations was the main reason, although price pressures remain. Annual inflation was 9.3% in September 2026 and 9.8% in August.
What impact does this have on Chinese enterprises and traders in Kazakhstan?
The direction of tenge borrowing costs is now downward, but the pace will depend on inflation. The rate decision on December 4 and inflation data over the remaining months of the year will be worth monitoring.
How have Kazakhstan’s recent economic data performed?
Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.2% in January–September 2026, the non-resource sector grew by 5.4%, and fixed asset investment increased by 7.0%; over the same period, oil production fell by 8.3% year on year.