Inflation in Kazakhstan is still coming down. Figures released by the Bureau of National Statistics on October 1 put annual inflation at 9.3% in September, down from 9.8% in August. Prices rose 0.6% on the month, the same pace as in August. In early September the National Bank said disinflation had run for 11 straight months; September stretched that to twelve.
The next date to watch is October 23, when the National Bank announces its base rate decision at 12:00 Astana time. The rate currently stands at 16.25%.
Food is pulling down, goods and services are not
Food prices were up 8.5% year on year (9.5% in August), non-food goods 11% (11.4%) and paid services 8.9%, unchanged from August. Within September alone, food got 0.1% cheaper while non-food goods rose 1.1% and services 1%.
Seasonal vegetables did most of the work: onions fell 20.7% on the month, carrots 13.6% and potatoes 13.4%. Deputy Prime Minister and National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin told the government on October 13 that slower food inflation was the main driver, adding that real household money incomes grew 0.7% in the second quarter after 0.1% in the first.
A few numbers matter for business. Car prices were down 11.3% from a year earlier, the steepest drop among the non-food items the bureau listed. Within the consumer basket, housing rent was up 19.3% and piped gas 20%. Regions diverge widely: North Kazakhstan (11.3%) and Akmola (11.2%) had the highest inflation, Karaganda and Pavlodar the lowest at 7.7% each, with Almaty at 8.4% and Astana at 10.2%.
The market expects a small step
The National Bank has cut three times since June: from 18% to 17% on June 5, to 16.75% on July 24 and to 16.25% on September 4, with a corridor of plus or minus one percentage point.
The analytical centre of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) published its monthly survey of market professionals on October 8, polling bankers, insurers, brokers and treasury and research staff. Some 85% expect a cut to 15.75–16% on October 23, and 71% of those see the minimum 25 bp step to 16%. Twelve months out, respondents see the base rate at 14.5% and inflation at 9.7%, down from the 10.4% they expected a month earlier.
They have also turned more upbeat on the tenge, expecting 456.5 per dollar by early November against 474.2 in the September poll, and 502.6 in a year's time against 511.6. We covered the tenge's nine-month run in a separate piece.
The regulator itself sounds more cautious. Its September 4 statement kept the 2026 inflation forecast at 9–11% but lifted the 2027 range to 6.5–8.5% from 5.5–7.5%, citing higher external inflation, revised assumptions on regulated prices and a bigger fiscal impulse. It said room for further cuts was limited. The medium-term goal is inflation near 5% in 2028.
What it means for Chinese companies in Kazakhstan
First, tenge money is still expensive. Even at 16%, the base rate would sit about 6.7 percentage points above current inflation (a simple subtraction, not an official real-rate estimate). The yuan loans from the Development Bank of Kazakhstan we reported earlier are priced off China's LPR and follow a different logic, so it pays to put both costs side by side when choosing the currency of a project loan.
Second, and this is our reading: if disinflation and rate cuts continue, consumer and car loans should slowly get cheaper, which helps companies selling cars and appliances in Kazakhstan. Yet car prices falling 11.3% while non-food prices rise 11% points to fierce price competition in the auto market.
Third, a survey is an expectation, not a decision. What happens on October 23, and whether the National Bank keeps stressing limited room, will feed straight into tenge asset yields and year-end currency forecasts.
Open questions: a cut or a pause on October 23; whether inflation can get close to the bottom of the 9–11% range by the year's last meeting, set for December 4 in the National Bank's schedule; and how much utility tariffs and fuel will push up fourth-quarter prices.
Sources:
Bureau of National Statistics, Inflation in Kazakhstan in September 2026 (Russian), https://stat.gov.kz/ru/news/inflyatsiya-v-respublike-kazakhstan-v-sentyabre-2026-goda/
Bureau of National Statistics, Inflation in the Republic of Kazakhstan (September 2026), https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/economy/prices/publications/517844/
Kazakhstan Today, 13 October 2026, https://www.kt.kz/rus/ekonomika/godovaya_inflyatsiya_v_kazahstane_zamedlilas_do_9_3_1378002032.html
National Bank of Kazakhstan, press release of 4 September 2026 (Russian), https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/press-relizy/20266
National Bank of Kazakhstan, base rate decision schedule, https://nationalbank.kz/en/news/grafik-prinyatiya-resheniy-po-bazovoy-stavke/rubrics/2365
Standard.kz, AFK October survey, https://standard.kz/en/post/2026_10_85-ekspertov-zdut-snizeniia-bazovoi-stavki-v-oktiabre-opros-afk-368
Tengrinews, 8 October 2026, https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/kazahstane-snova-mogut-snizit-bazovuyu-stavku-prognoz-610408/
Key facts
- Kazakhstan’s annual nationwide inflation rate was 9.3% in September, 0.5 percentage points lower than in August.
- Food prices in Kazakhstan rose 8.5% year on year in September, non-food prices rose 11.0%, and paid services rose 8.9%.
- The current base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan is 16.25%, and it is scheduled to announce the next decision on October 23.
- A survey by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan found that 85% of respondents expected an October rate cut to 15.75%–16.00%.
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its 2027 inflation forecast from 5.5%–7.5% to 6.5%–8.5%.
- Car prices in Kazakhstan fell 11.3% year on year in September, while housing rents and piped natural gas prices rose 19.3% and 20.0%, respectively.
FAQ
What was Kazakhstan’s inflation rate in September?
Kazakhstan’s annual nationwide inflation rate was 9.3% in September, 0.5 percentage points lower than August’s 9.8%, while prices rose 0.6% month on month during the month.
When will the National Bank of Kazakhstan announce the next base rate decision?
The National Bank of Kazakhstan is scheduled to announce its decision at 12:00 on October 23 (Astana Time). The current base rate is 16.25%.
What does the market expect regarding an October rate cut?
A survey by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan found that 85% of surveyed professionals expected the rate to fall to 15.75%–16.00%, with 71% forecasting 16.00%.
Why did the National Bank of Kazakhstan indicate that there was limited room for further rate cuts?
The National Bank of Kazakhstan cited rising external inflation, adjustments to the conditions for regulated prices, and increased fiscal support as reasons for indicating that there was limited room for further rate cuts.
What impact would continued declines in inflation and interest rates have on enterprises in Kazakhstan?
The original analysis states that if inflation and interest rates continue to decline, the cost of consumer and auto loans may fall. In September, non-food prices rose 11.0% year on year, while car prices fell 11.3%.