Kazakhstan wants its vegetable oil and oilseed-product exports to earn about $1.5 billion a year by 2028, the Agriculture Ministry said on October 12. The industry is not starting from scratch: export earnings have risen fivefold over five marketing seasons, from $247 million to $1.232 billion. China is where most of the momentum is. According to the ministry and the National Association of Oilseed Processors (NAPMK), shipments to China have grown more than 3.7 times over the past three seasons, and Kazakhstan is now the second-largest supplier of sunflower oil to the Chinese market.
For Chinese importers, crushers and logistics firms, two things stand out. Kazakhstan plans to roughly double its refining and bottling capacity, and this year's raw-material supply should be much larger, with a record oilseed harvest expected.
Where the $1.5 billion comes from
The figure is the headline goal of a 2026–2028 roadmap for oil and fat exports. Opening the FOC 2026 conference in Astana in June, Deputy Prime Minister and National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin put 2025 export earnings at $963 million and said the roadmap aims to lift annual earnings above $1.5 billion. The ministry's talk of growth of "about 60%", as Cronos.Asia points out, is measured against the baseline used when the roadmap was drafted.
Measured against the latest seasonal figure of $1.232 billion, the gap is only a little over 20%. The longer-term ambition is a place among the world's top three sunflower oil exporters and $2 billion a year in earnings. In 2025 the sector accounted for 27% of Kazakhstan's processed agricultural exports.
Why China matters
In 2025 Kazakhstan shipped 440,000 tonnes of oil and fat products to China, up 44%, earning $312 million, up 37%. Kazakh sunflower oil took a 36% share of China's imports, second among suppliers. Industry representatives presented these numbers at a sector conference in Shanghai in March.
Kazakhstan also ranked among China's top five rapeseed oil suppliers in the 2024/25 season, and it is one of the three largest suppliers of sunflower meal to both the EU and China. Globally, it was the sixth-largest sunflower oil exporter in 2025.
The railway decides
Most of the volume moves through the Dostyk–Alashankou border crossing. Since early 2024, NAPMK and the national railway, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), have coordinated vegetable oil shipment plans to China through a single mechanism. In 2023 less than 40% of planned shipments actually went out; the figure is now above 90%.
Transit times help as well. In autumn 2025, for the first time, Kazakh sunflower oil travelled from East Kazakhstan region to Jiangsu province in 40-foot containers fitted with flexitanks: 4,700 km in 12 days. Two more channels opened in 2026. Since March, pelleted sunflower meal has been moving to China in grain hopper wagons through the same crossing on a pilot basis, and the port of Aktau handled Kazakhstan's first seaborne shipment of vegetable oil.
NAPMK chairman Yadykar Ibragimov argues that new plants alone will not be enough. The industry, he says, needs storage, consolidation and transshipment capacity on the Chinese border and at Caspian ports.
Rules related to this news
Moving downstream
Kazakhstan's oil mills can already crush more than 5.2 million tonnes of seed a year. Ibragimov said refining capacity is set to grow 2.1 times in 2026–2028 to more than 1 million tonnes a year, lifting output of bottled refined sunflower oil about 2.4 times. Vegetable fats and margarine are the next step.
Raw material remains the bottleneck. Sunflower plantings have grown 2.3 times since 2021, from 958,000 hectares to a record 2.2 million hectares in 2026, yet mills still want more seed than farmers supply. Processors now finance growers directly for sowing, seed, fertiliser and crop protection; in 2025 they put in more than 43 billion tenge.
This year's crop should ease the squeeze. At a government meeting on October 13, Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said 3.7 million tonnes of oilseeds had been threshed, 2.5 times last year's 1.4 million tonnes at the same point. The final harvest is expected to be a record of more than 5 million tonnes.
What it means for Chinese companies
Importers are dealing with a supplier whose raw-material base is growing and whose rail logistics have become more predictable. A large crop means busier mills and probably more oil available for export, though monthly wagon plans and contracts still have to be checked plant by plant against the KTZ schedule.
Investors can look at the links Kazakhstan has named as priorities: refining, bottling, vegetable fats and margarine, plus storage and transshipment at the border and on the Caspian. There is room for equipment makers, packaging suppliers and food processors.
For logistics companies, flexitank containers, meal in grain wagons and the sea route via Aktau are all new formats. Volumes are still small and the rules are being worked out.
One caveat: $1.5 billion is a target, not an outcome. The "3.7 times" and "above 90%" figures come from the ministry and the industry association; the release did not include a customs breakdown by country or product.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration, not a photograph and not a direct depiction of the events described.
Sources:
Kazinform (citing Kazakhstan's Ministry of Agriculture), https://www.inform.kz/ru/kazahstan-planiruet-zarabativat-naeksporte-maslozhirovoy-produktsii-do15mlrd-vgo-32727652
APK News (citing NAPMK), https://apk-news.kz/news/item-7336
Cronos.Asia, https://cronos.asia/news/kazahstan-natselilsya-voyti-v-troyku-krupneyshih-eksporterov-podsolnechnogo-masla/
Government of Kazakhstan (primeminister.kz), https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/v-kazahstane-ozhidayut-rekordnyy-urozhay-maslichnyh-kultur-svyshe-5-mln-tonn-31996
Egemen Qazaqstan, https://egemen.kz/news/article414249-may-eksportynan-tusken-payda-rekordtyq-denhgeyge-dgetti
Kazinform (Chinese edition), https://cn.inform.kz/news/zaizhongguo36-cf36f1/
Rail-news.kz (Zheleznodorozhnik Kazakhstana), https://rail-news.kz/index.php/ru/news/23141-kazaxstan-uvelicil-eksport-maslozirovoi-produkcii-v-kitai-na-44.html
Key facts
- Kazakhstan targets approximately USD 1.5 billion in export earnings from oil and fat products by 2028.
- Over the past five crushing seasons, Kazakhstan’s oil and fat export earnings increased from USD 247 million to USD 1.232 billion.
- According to the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Association of Oilseed Processors, Kazakhstan’s oil and fat exports to China increased to more than 3.7 times their original level over the past three crushing seasons.
- Kazakhstan plans to expand refining capacity to 2.1 times its current level, exceeding 1 million tonnes annually, in 2026–2028.
- Kazakhstan expects the annual oilseed harvest to exceed 5 million tonnes, setting a record.
- The fulfillment rate for shipment plans on the Dostyk–Alashankou railway route to China has risen from less than 40% in 2023 to more than 90%.
FAQ
What is Kazakhstan’s oil and fat export target?
Kazakhstan aims to generate approximately USD 1.5 billion in export earnings from oil and fat products by 2028. This figure is a planned target, not an achieved result.
How have Kazakhstan’s oil and fat exports to China grown?
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Kazakhstan National Association of Oilseed Processors, exports of oil and fat products to China increased to more than 3.7 times their original level over the past three crushing seasons. Exports to China reached 440,000 tonnes in 2025, generating USD 312 million in revenue.
What changes are expected in Kazakhstan’s oilseed supply and refining capacity?
Kazakhstan expects the annual oilseed harvest to exceed 5 million tonnes, setting a record. From 2026–2028, refining capacity is planned to increase to 2.1 times its current level, exceeding 1 million tonnes annually.
Which industry segments should Chinese investors consider?
Kazakhstan plans to expand refining and small-packaging capacity, with vegetable fats and margarine to be included later. The industry association has proposed strengthening storage, consolidation, and transshipment capacity.
How has Kazakhstan’s rail transport corridor to China changed?
The fulfillment rate for shipment plans on the Dostyk–Alashankou railway route to China has risen from less than 40% in 2023 to more than 90%.