J.P. Morgan puts Kazakhstan's government bonds on GBI-EM Index Watch-Positive: provisional 0.48% weight, review of up to 12 months

Kazakhstan's local-currency government bonds are a step closer to a major global benchmark. The National Bank said on October 8 that J.P. Morgan had announced the previous day that it was moving Kazakh government securities to Index Watch-Positive, the list of markets under review for possible inclusion in its GBI-EM index of emerging-market local-currency government bonds. The Finance Ministry confirmed the same day that the decision came out of the bank's 2026 index classification review.

This is not inclusion yet. Watch-Positive is an assessment stage that can last up to 12 months, and the outcome depends on what J.P. Morgan finds.

What will be assessed

According to the central bank and the ministry, the review will focus on how easily international investors can access the market, including through international clearing and settlement systems; the liquidity of bonds that meet index criteria; and progress on settlement and depository infrastructure.

The National Bank itself names international settlement and depository infrastructure as a key area of further work. Put simply, the question is whether a foreign fund can buy, hold and sell a Kazakh bond without friction.

A provisional 0.48% weight

Citing J.P. Morgan's estimate, the central bank said Kazakhstan's provisional weight in the GBI-EM Global Diversified index would be about 0.48% if it is admitted, putting it alongside China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and others.

The weight is small, but the investor base would change. Index-tracking funds buy a country's bonds in line with its benchmark weight rather than for any single project. That money tends to be stickier, but it is also demanding about settlement, disclosure and stable rules.

What J.P. Morgan noted

As summarised by the National Bank, the report credits the introduction of primary dealers, growth in secondary trading – average monthly volume up 86% since the start of the year, per J.P. Morgan's data – the launch of the Capital Markets Kazakhstan information portal, a Bond Market Guide for Kazakhstan prepared for foreign investors with Asian Development Bank support, and Kazakhstan's participation in the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum.

The Finance Ministry expects inclusion to broaden the foreign investor base, lift liquidity and lower borrowing costs. That is the ministry's expectation; whether it materialises will depend on the review and market conditions.

The rate backdrop

The news lands during an easing cycle. The National Bank cut its base rate in June, July and September; since September 7 it has stood at 16.25%, with a corridor of 15.25–17.25%. The next decision is due on October 23 at 12:00 Astana time. Annual inflation slowed to 9.3% in September from 9.8% in August, according to the Bureau of National Statistics.

What it means for Chinese investors

For Chinese companies operating in Kazakhstan and borrowing in tenge, index money flowing into government bonds could, over time, affect local interest rates and the terms on which companies issue debt.

Kazakhstan is also raising money in renminbi. The Finance Ministry has tapped China's interbank market twice this year with panda bonds, and KazMunayGas and the Development Bank of Kazakhstan have sold dim sum bonds. Renminbi funding targets Chinese capital; opening the tenge bond market targets global index funds. The two tracks run in parallel.

Financial institutions weighing tenge assets can watch three concrete indicators during the review: access through international settlement systems, non-resident holdings of government bonds and secondary-market liquidity. Tenge bonds carry currency and liquidity risk; this article is for information only and is not investment advice.

Sources:
National Bank of Kazakhstan, 8 October 2026: https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/informacionnye-soobshcheniya/20432
Kazpravda (citing the Finance Ministry), 8 October 2026: https://kazpravda.kz/n/kazahstanskie-gosobligatsii-popali-v-pozitivnyy-spisok-jp-morgan-dlya-indeksa-gbi-em/
The Astana Times: https://astanatimes.com/2026/10/kazakhstans-government-securities-added-to-j-p-morgan-watchlist-for-potential-gbi-em-inclusion/
Qazinform, 8 October 2026: https://qazinform.com/news/jp-morgan-places-kazakhstan-on-watchlist-for-emerging-markets-bond-index-1ee514
National Bank, base rate decision schedule: https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/grafik-prinyatiya-resheniy-po-bazovoy-stavke/rubrics/2365
Bureau of National Statistics, inflation in September 2026: https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/economY/prices/publications/517844/