The tenge has strengthened markedly this year. At the government meeting on 13 October, National Bank First Deputy Governor Yerulan Zhamaubayev said the currency gained 13.7% against the dollar over nine months, reaching 440.5 tenge.
The central bank's explanation
Zhamaubayev gave three reasons. First, high prices for oil and other key exports lifted foreign-currency supply while demand stayed moderate. Second, monetary conditions. Third, non-residents kept buying Kazakh government bonds: their holdings have grown by KZT 786 billion since January to KZT 2.6 trillion.
Over the same period the National Fund sold $2.8 billion of foreign currency on the exchange, and "mirroring" operations absorbed KZT 3.2 trillion of tenge liquidity. The bank said it would stick with a flexible exchange rate, which it sees as helping the economy adjust to external shocks and preventing imbalances from building up.
The flip side
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At the same meeting Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin listed the strong tenge among the factors weighing on exporters' and budget revenues. Annual inflation slowed to 9.3% in September, and the government aims to keep it below 10% through year-end. For background on foreign appetite for Kazakh bonds, see our earlier report on J.P. Morgan placing Kazakhstan on positive watch for its GBI-EM index.
What it means for Chinese business
Companies that earn in tenge but pay in yuan or dollars, such as importers, distributors, local assemblers and contractors, see better margins after conversion. But the rate floats and can turn, so building this year's gain into long-term budgets is risky. Chinese exporters may want to revisit tenge pricing and settlement terms. Investment models should run several currency scenarios and track official National Bank data. This article is not a currency forecast or investment advice.
This article was prepared with AI assistance and checked against sources by the editors; the cover is an AI-generated illustration, not a photograph.
Sources:
- Tengrinews.kz: https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/pochemu-ukrepilsya-tenge-podeshevel-dollar-chto-dalshe-610710/
- 24KZ: https://24.kz/ru/news/economyc/798960-tenge-ukrepilsya-na-13-7-za-devyat-mesyatsev-v-natsbanke-obyasnili-prichiny
- Kazinform: https://www.inform.kz/ru/kazahstan-podvel-ekonomicheskie-itogi-zadevyat-mesyatsev-f70585aa
- Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, official site (economy ministry report): https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/rost-vvp-kazahstana-po-itogam-devyati-mesyacev-tekushchego-goda-sostavil-42-31989
Key facts
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan said that the tenge appreciated by 13.7% against the US dollar in the first nine months of 2026.
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan said that elevated oil prices and elevated prices for major export commodities increased the supply of foreign currency.
- Nonresidents continued to purchase Kazakhstan government bonds, with foreign holdings increasing by 786 billion tenge during the year.
- Foreign investors' holdings of Kazakhstan government bonds reached 2.6 trillion tenge.
- Over the same period, the National Fund sold US$2.8 billion worth of foreign exchange on the exchange market.
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan said it would continue to apply the floating exchange rate regime.
FAQ
By how much did the tenge appreciate against the US dollar in the first nine months?
扎茂巴耶夫 stated at a government meeting on October 13 that the tenge had appreciated by 13.7% against the US dollar in the first nine months of 2026, with 1 US dollar buying 440.5 tenge.
How does the National Bank of Kazakhstan explain the tenge's strengthening?
The National Bank of Kazakhstan cited three factors: high oil prices and high prices for major export commodities, monetary policy conditions, and continued purchases of Kazakhstan government bonds by nonresidents.
How have foreign investors' holdings of Kazakhstan government bonds changed?
Foreign investors' holdings have increased by 786 billion tenge since the beginning of the year, reaching 2.6 trillion tenge.
What foreign exchange operations did the National Fund carry out during the same period?
The National Fund sold US$2.8 billion worth of foreign exchange on the exchange market, and the related “mirror” operations cumulatively absorbed 3.2 trillion tenge in liquidity.
What impact does the tenge's strengthening have on Chinese companies?
The source notes that, for companies earning in tenge and incurring costs in renminbi or US dollars, a stronger tenge will improve profits after currency conversion. However, because the exchange rate floats in both directions, this year's appreciation should not be treated as the norm and incorporated into long-term budgets.