China and Kazakhstan disagree by roughly 23,000 units on how many passenger cars crossed their border last year. Chinese data show 186,965 passenger cars exported to Kazakhstan in 2025, up 74.3% year on year. Kazakhstan's statistics record 163,800 passenger cars imported from China. Kazakh analytics firm Ranking.kz set out the gap in a review published on October 19, with a caveat: the difference is not a measure of "grey" imports and cannot be read directly as lost budget revenue.
Where the numbers come from
On the Chinese side, the Gasgoo research institute published 2025 passenger-car exports by destination in February: 186,965 vehicles to Kazakhstan for the year, 20,253 of them in December. Ranking.kz cites the same Chinese passenger-car statistics at 187,000.
On the Kazakh side, Ranking.kz puts 2025 passenger-car imports from China at 163,800, up 2.3 times on the year, with China's share of all passenger-car imports reaching 69.2%, against 46.9% in 2024. EnergyProm said in February that imports from China were "just over 160,000" and had grown 2.3-fold, which broadly matches.
The size of the gap depends on what you count
In February the gap was put at 51,500 vehicles; now it is 23,200. EnergyProm had compared Kazakh imports with the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) figure of 211,500. Ranking.kz points out that the CPCA number covers all vehicle exports to Kazakhstan, while Chinese statistics for passenger cars alone show 187,000.
Even Kazakhstan's total passenger-car imports come in two versions: 236,900 according to Ranking.kz and 231,900 according to EnergyProm. Before comparing the two countries' data, it pays to check whether a figure covers passenger cars or all vehicles, and new cars only or used ones as well.
The money gap is wider
According to figures cited by Ranking.kz, China valued its 2025 passenger-car exports to Kazakhstan at about $2.9 billion, while Kazakh statistics put imports from China at about $1.4 billion, a difference of roughly $1.5 billion. On Kazakh numbers, the average car from China was declared at about $8,600. The analysts note that mirror trade statistics routinely diverge because of accounting methods, but the larger the value gap, the more customs valuation and paperwork checks matter, since import charges are calculated on declared value.
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Two new hurdles for personal imports
Government Resolution No. 808 of September 10, 2026 amended the rules on extended producer (importer) responsibility. Individuals importing a car for their own use must now obtain a recycling-fee payment certificate before the vehicle is released into free circulation; previously this could wait until first registration. The resolution was published on September 11 and took effect ten calendar days later, on September 22.
Order No. 474 of the Minister of Industry and Construction, dated September 23, 2026, changed the rules for electronic vehicle passports. An e-passport for a car imported by an individual for personal use, from an EAEU member state or a third country, is issued only if no more than five years have passed since the vehicle was made. The order was published on September 25 and has applied since September 26. Without an e-passport, the car cannot be registered.
The limit of one car per person per year for personal imports remains in place.
What it means for Chinese carmakers and dealers
Ranking.kz data show that China supplies close to 70% of the passenger cars Kazakhstan imports. With the recycling-fee check moved to the customs stage and a five-year age cap on personal imports, the room for bringing cars in through private individuals has narrowed considerably. Chinese exporters and their Kazakh dealers would do well to check in advance that export documents and declared values line up with Kazakh customs data.
(The cover is an AI-generated illustration and is not directly related to the news content.)
Sources:
Ranking.kz, https://ranking.kz/reviews/industries/seryy-import-avtomobiley-vzyali-pod-usilennyy-kontrol.html
Gasgoo, https://auto.gasgoo.com/news/202602/5I70445807C110.shtml
Kursiv (citing EnergyProm), https://kz.kursiv.media/2026-02-19/fvfv-tret-registraciy-serye-v-statistike-importa-avto-nashli-razryv-v-51-5-tys-mashin/
Government of Kazakhstan Resolution No. 808 of September 10, 2026, https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P2600000808
Order No. 474 of the Minister of Industry and Construction of Kazakhstan, September 23, 2026, https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/V2600039966